Real estate

For the past several years, the hot real estate market has been a topic of interest nationwide — a fever that increased during the pandemic. Area real estate agents have been very pleased with the 2023 market, and in 2024, while it's predicted it will continue to sizzle, it will be at a much slower and manageable burn. During the pandemic, demand for homes went through the roof. "People were re-evaluating and re-assessing what's important and how to live life," says Joshua Greenwald, principal broker at Greenwald Realty Group. At the same time, homeowners in New Hampshire were not putting their house on the market during this time. "Other than wanting to cash in, people didn't want to go anywhere. Some were sitting on the sidelines, others were jumping in — it got stressful for the market and stressful for buyers. We had to remove safeguards like inspections, and then all of a sudden, inventory was depleted." In addition to forgoing an inspection, it was also commonplace for buyers to pay a significant percentage above the asking price, and there were more cash buyers, many of them retirees withdrawing from their 401(k) accounts. In late 2023, Greenwald Realty Group had 14 single-family homes in its inventory for sale. In a normal market, says Greenwald, that number would be 100. While there were not as many new homes under agreement in 2023 as there were in 2022, inspections have become commonplace again, and not every offer has a price-escalation clause included. The average number of days on the market was 27 in 2023, down 3.6 percent according to the N.H. Association of Realtors. In Vermont, that number was down a whopping 50 percent, based on Vermont Association of Realtors data. "There's been a lot more due diligence," says Greenwald. "There should be informed buying. Sellers are having to present the best product possible." Larry Alvarez, an agent with Tieger Realty in Jaffrey, says while the market has improved, the lack of inventory is the industry's biggest challenge along with the high median sales price of $340,000 in Cheshire County. "Most jobs don't pay to be able to afford that," Alvarez says. "Affordable houses have multiple offers." Those affordable homes, he adds, are still selling for more than the asking price. "Every time a home sale happens, it's used as the next benchmark," he says. "Paying in cash and putting more cash down is king. It's the toughest market for first-time home buyers and veterans." Interest rates, which had soared to 7 percent in 2022, are starting to stabilize, and they are predicted to lower more in 2024. "We're not seeing a decrease in prices; we're seeing a decrease in the increase," says Greenwald. "Some have price reductions and will make more houses linger in the market. There will be more houses for sale, and there will be more supply-and-demand equilibrium." At the moment, there is still a massive inventory shortage resulting from people who purchased their home when the interest rate was 3 percent and who aren't ready to sell. One bright spot for real estate agents, says Greenwald, is that the sustained higher interest rate — expected to drop from 7 percent to 6 percent in 2024 — is erasing people's memory of the 2 percent to 3 percent interest rates during the Great Recession. "It's recalibrating buyers' expectations," he says. "It will mean sellers will list their homes for sale, and buyers will have more buying power; 2024 will be a robust year." Land sales soar Anna Schierioth, managing broker with HKS Associates in Keene, says land sales have increased, up 25 percent in 2023 from the previous year for 20 acres or more. "Land is a great alternative as an investment," she says, "or a second avenue to build on. It's inexpensive to hold and will appreciate, especially if there's timber on it." Alvarez has noticed land sales skyrocketed in 2023. "What was $40,000 is now $80,000," he says. "Most land is going for a lot more than what it used to go for, and it doesn't last long." Schierioth predicts existing home sales will rise by 13 percent in spring 2024. "There's a great deal of optimism there," she says. "It's exciting for sellers because of the marketing available to real estate agents today, from drone photography to virtual staging to virtual renovations." Alvarez thinks 2024 will look very similar to 2023. "It will be tough to buy a house," he says. "Buyers will be out there competing for affordable housing." Greenwald believes zoning changes will help with the inventory shortage in 2024. "We need to loosen up and change zoning in municipalities; we have to get more flexible," he says. "We need to convert single-family homes into [multiple] units to increase stock. We need to subdivide. We also need more surveyors, so viable building lots can be approved by the city. Right now, surveyors are booked two months out." Going forward, he thinks brokers should use ingenuity and look for people seeking to sell while finding clients good deals. "In 2022 it was out of our hands," he says. "We'll work hard for our clients. It will benefit everyone — we're on it. What we need is more inventory. I think it will happen naturally. We'll look back and say there was a plan in place."